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The GISS-A scenario projects a global temperature rise of . and a increase in precipitation. GCMs currently provide the most Tropical fruit coors light beer all over print hawaiian shirt advanced means of predicting the potential future climatic consequences of increasing radiatively active trace gases. They have been shown to simulate current temperatures reasonably well,

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allocation. Economic feedback mechanisms are likely to emphasize and accentuate the uneven distribution of climate change impacts across the world, resulting in net gains for developed countries in all but the UKMO scenarios and a noticeable loss to developing countries. As a result, net imports of cereals into developing countries increase in all scenarios, on the order of to compared to trade in the reference scenario. The magnitude of the impacts and these different responses at aggregate regional level are shown in ure . and ure , for cereals and total crops, respectively. ure . illustrates the impacts projected by cereal commodity with physiological effects of ppm CO and farm-level adaptation. Accordingly, global wheat production is less likely to Tropical fruit coors light beer all over print hawaiian shirt suffer negative climate impacts than other cereal commodities; it increases in GISS and GFDL scenarios and declines less than other cereals in the UKMO scenario. This is likely due to the location of major wheat-producing regions at mid and high latitudes, where yield declines are projected to be lower. When the physiological effects of ppm CO on yields are included in the assessment, cereal prices increase on the order of to relative to the standard reference projection. The index of crop prices increases by to , depending on GCM climate change scenario. Changes caused by GISS and GFDL scenarios are rather modest, resulting in an increase of about to in cereal prices, and an increase of less than in overall crop prices. Only the yield impacts derived under a climate change as projected by the UKMO GCM produced large agricultural price increases. On the other hand, under the GISS-A climate scenario, where impacts are dominated by positive physiological effects of CO, major price decreases occur. . contains changes in world market prices for cereals and an overall crop price index, as observed in the climate change scenarios relative to the standard reference projection.

When direct physiological effects of CO on plant growth and yields are not included, major increases in world market prices result in four- to nine-fold increases of cereal prices depending on GCM scenario. Apart from the scientific evidence of the beneficial physiological effects of elevated CO levels on crop yields, such increases would elicit strong public reaction and policy measures to mitigate the negative yield impacts. Hence, the outcome for scenarios without the physiological effects of CO on yields are probably unrealistically extreme. In the standard reference scenario, GDP at the global level increases at an average . annually during to . Economic growth declines to about . per annum during to . Overall, global GDP increases . times during the simulation period compared to a .-fold increase in population numbers. This results in an average annual increase in GDP per caput of . and . in developed and developing countries, respectively, over the -year period from to . It should be noted, however, that increases in per caput indicators are higher at regional and national levels compared to global ures owing to an aggregation effect induced by the demographic development, giving increasingly higher weights to poorer developing countries. The adaptation studies conducted by the scientists participating in the project suggest that ease of adaptation to climate change is likely to vary with crop, site and adaptation technique. For example, at present, many Mexican producers can only afford to use small doses of nitrogen fertilizer at planting; if more fertilizer becomes available to more farmers some of the yield reductions under the climate change scenarios might be offset. However, given the current economic and environmental constraints in countries such as Mexico, a future with unlimited water and nutrients is unlikely Liverman . In contrast, switching from spring to winter wheat at the modelling sites in the former USSR produces a favourable response Menzhulin , suggesting that agricultural productivity may be enhanced there with the relatively easy shift to winter wheat varieties. Another scenario, termed GISS- utilized the climate changes projected for the s from the GISS transient run with ppm CO for the crop model simulations. This scenario was used to test the consequences of a lower sensitivity of the climate system to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

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