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Different climate policies result in different temperature pathways, which result in different levels of climate risks Tropical busch light beer all over print hawaiian shirt and actual climate impacts with associated long-term implications. Temperature pathways are classified into continued warming pathways , pathways that keep the

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Stocker . Observation-based estimates have reported log-normal distributions of TCRE . Assuming a log-normal instead of normal distribution of the assessed AR TCRE range would result in about a GtCO increase for the median budget estimates but only about half at the th percentile, while historical temperature uncertainty and uncertainty in recent emissions contribute and GtCO to the uncertainty, respectively .. AR found sectoral decarbonization strategies from IAMs to be consistent with sector-specific studies Clarke . A growing body of literature on -renewable energy scenarios has emerged , Jacobson , which goes beyond the wide range of IAM projections of renewable energy shares in . and pathways. While the representation of renewable energy resource potentials, technology costs and system integration in IAMs has been updated since AR, Tropical busch light beer all over print hawaiian shirt leading to higher renewable energy deployments in many cases Luderer , Pietzcker , none of the IAM projections identify renewable energy solutions for the global energy system as part of cost-effective mitigation pathways … Bottom-up studies find higher mitigation potentials in the industry, buildings, and transport sectors in than realized in selected pathways from IAMs , indicating the possibility to strengthen sectoral decarbonization strategies until beyond the integrated . pathways assessed in this Luderer . A world that is consistent with holding warming to .

would see greenhouse gas emissions rapidly decline in the coming decade, with strong international cooperation and a scaling up of countries’ combined ambition beyond current NDCs. In contrast, delayed action, limited international cooperation, and weak or fragmented policies that lead to stagnating or increasing greenhouse gas emissions would put the possibility of limiting global temperature rise to . above pre-industrial levels out of reach. At the st Conference of the Parties in December , nations adopted the Paris Agreement. The first instrument of its kind, the landmark agreement includes the aim to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to . above pre-industrial levels’. In , scenarios of a . warmer world and the associated pathways are assessed. The pathways assessment builds upon the AR with a greater emphasis on sustainable development in mitigation pathways. All pathways begin now and involve rapid and unprecedented societal transformation. An important framing device for this report is the recognition that choices that determine emissions pathways, whether ambitious mitigation or ‘no policy’ scenarios, do not occur independently of these other changes and are, in fact, highly interdependent. Dramatic transformations required to achieve the enabling conditions for a . warmer world could impose trade-offs on dimensions of development IPC Olsson . Some choices of adaptation methods also could adversely impact development Olsson . This report recognizes the potential for adverse impacts and focuses on finding the synergies between limiting warming, sustainable development, and eradicating poverty, thus highlighting pathways that do not constrain other goals, such as sustainable development and eradicating poverty. AR and World Bank underscored the non-linearity of risks and impacts as temperature rises from to of warming, particularly in relation to water availability, heat extremes, bleaching of coral reefs, and more. Recent studies g , a assess the impacts of . versus warming, with the same message of non-linearity. The resilience of ecosystems, meaning their ability either to resist change or to recover after a disturbance, may change, and often decline, in a non-linear way. An example are reef ecosystems, with some studies suggesting that reefs will change, rather than disappear entirely, and with particular species showing greater tolerance to coral bleaching than others Pörtner . A key issue is therefore whether ecosystems such as coral reefs survive an overshoot scenario, and to what extent they would be able to recover after stabilization at . or higher levels of warming see Box ..

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