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in production elsewhere and without paying attention to climate change effects on the world market and their Busch light beer pineapple summer all over print hawaiian shirt feedbacks. Assessments of potential impacts have been achieved in national studies completed in the

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climate warming on nomadic peoples in hot regions such as the Sahara or the Arabian Peninsula. Although there are few analyses of such potential impacts, there is every reason to believe that if climate change were to occur at the high end of the projected ranges, the consequences could be serious for many countries, especially for developing countries. With less agricultural production in developing countries and higher prices on international markets, the estimated number of people at risk of hunger is likely to increase. This occurs in all but one scenario .. The largest increase is to be expected from the UKMO scenario without CO physiological effects; the smallest change, a decline of , occurred in the GISS scenario considering physiological effects of Busch light beer pineapple summer all over print hawaiian shirt increased CO and Adaptation Level . In the standard reference scenario the incidence of hunger decreases markedly from an estimated of population in developing countries in year to some in year . Yet, despite this remarkable improvement the estimated number of people at risk of hunger increases somewhat, from about million in to almost million in year , and some million in the year . The projected number of undernourished people in developing countries is shown in ..

No estimate was attempted for developed regions. Of course, the projected number of people at risk of hunger is sensitive to the scenario assumption, ranging from less than million under the low population run, about million assuming faster economic development, to about million under the lower growth scenario. Finally, we ask where all this leaves the hungry. To evaluate the impact of alternative scenarios on the poor in different countries, it was necessary to generate a consistent hunger indicator in the BLS. Country-wise estimates of the number of undernourished persons have been made by FAO . To recover the FAO method in a reduced form, sui for use in the simulation models, a cross-country regression has been estimated explaining the share of people at risk of hunger by a measure of food energy availability relative to nutritional requirements. Food availability, in turn, depends on income and price levels. The standard reference projection, scenario REF-M, presents the perspective of a world in which the effective demand for food grows substantially owing to higher incomes and larger populations. Technological progress and economic development assumed in the reference scenario allow this increase in demand to be met at somewhat decreasing world market prices for agricultural products, consistent with historical trends. . shows global production of agricultural commodities in the standard reference scenario REF-M and in the higher income scenario REF. With faster economic growth, especially in developing countries such as in scenario REF, world GDP grows almost . times between year and , compared to only . times as in the lower growth projection REF-L. Note that even with relatively minor variations on the basic economic assumptions, the resulting output in year varies by some . Similarly, food production measured in terms of net food energy, ,, production less feed, seed and waste as well as overall agriculture growth is projected to exceed population growth throughout the simulation period. The IBSNAT crop models were used to estimate how climate change and increasing levels of carbon dioxide may alter yields of world crops at sites in countries. ure .. The crop models used were CERES-Wheat Ritchie and Otter, Godwin , CERES-Maize Jones and Kiniry, Ritchie , CERES-Rice Godwin , and SOYGRO Jones . In the US Environmental Protection Agency , with additional support provided by the US Agency for International Development , commissioned a three-year study on the effects of climate change on world food supply. The present study is an initial attempt to arrive at an integrated global assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agriculture and the world food system. The collaborative project was jointly managed by the Goddard Institute of Space Studies and the Environmental Change Unit in collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and involved about scientists worldwide. Recent research has focused on regional and national assessments of the potential effects of climate change on agriculture. For the most part this work has treated each region or nation in isolation, without relation to changes

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