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into poverty as they lack the means to recover from associated impacts. Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves, Tropical fruit beavis and butt-head all over print hawaiian shirt  especially when they occur in series, can significantly erode poor people’s assets and further undermine their livelihoods in terms of labour productivity, housing, infrastructure and social networks Olsson . Once

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many pathways limiting warming to or higher by still have noticeable increasing trends at the end of the century, and thus imply continued warming. Emissions scenarios need to cover all sectors and regions over the st century to be associated with a climate change projection out to . Assumptions regarding future trends in population, consumption of goods and services , economic growth, behaviour, technology, policies and institutions are all required to generate scenarios … These societal choices must then be linked to the drivers of climate change, including emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosol and ozone precursors as well as land-use and land-cover changes. Deliberate solar radiation modification is not included in these scenarios see Cross- Box in . This IPCC special report identifies two main pathways that explore global warming of .. The first involves global temperature stabilizing at or below before . above pre-industrial levels. The second pathway sees warming exceed . around mid-century, remain above . for a maximum duration of a few decades, and return to below . before . The latter is often referred to as an ‘overshoot’ Tropical fruit beavis and butt-head all over print hawaiian shirt pathway. Any alternative situation in which global temperature continues to rise, exceeding . permanently until the end of the st century, is not considered to be a . pathway. Natural processes that remove CO permanently from the climate system are so slow that reducing the rate of CO-induced warming to zero requires net zero global anthropogenic CO emissions Archer and Brovkin, Matthews and Caldeir Solomon , meaning almost all remaining anthropogenic CO emissions must be compensated for by an equal rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide removal .

Cumulative CO emissions are therefore an accurate indicator of CO-induced warming, except in periods of high negative CO emissions Zickfeld , and potentially in century-long periods of near-s temperatures Bowerman , Wigley. In contrast, sustained constant emissions of a SLCF such as methane, would be consistent with constant methane concentrations and hence very little additional methane-induced warming Allen , Fuglestvedt . Both GWP and GTP would equate sustained SLCF emissions with sustained constant CO emissions, which would continue to accumulate in the climate system, warming global temperatures indefinitely. Hence nominally ‘equivalent’ emissions of CO and SLCFs, if equated conventionally using GWP or GTP, have very different temperature impacts, and these differences are particularly evident under ambitious mitigation characterizing . pathways. The notion of a ‘pathway’ can have multiple meanings in the climate literature. It is often used to describe the temporal evolution of a set of scenario features, such as GHG emissions and socio-economic development. As such, it can describe individual scenario components or sometimes be used interchangeably with the word ‘scenario’. For example, the RCPs describe GHG concentration trajectories van Vuuren , and the SSPs are a set of narratives of societal futures augmented by quantitative projections of socio-economic determinants such as population, GDP and urbanization Kriegler , O’Neill . Socio-economic driving forces consistent with any of the SSPs can be combined with a set of climate policy assumptions Kriegler , that together would lead to emissions and concentration outcomes consistent with the RCPs Riahi . This is at the core of the scenario framework for climate change research that aims to facilitate creating scenarios integrating emissions and development pathways dimensions Ebi , van Vuuren . A large and rapidly growing body of knowledge explores the connections between climate change and poverty. Climatic variability and climate change are widely recognized as factors that may exacerbate poverty, particularly in countries and regions where poverty levels are high . The AR noted that climate change-driven impacts often act as a threat multiplier in that the impacts of climate change compound other drivers of poverty Olsson . Many vulnerable and poor people are dependent on activities such as agriculture that are highly susceptible to temperature increases and variability in precipitation patterns Shiferaw , Miyan. Even modest changes in rainfall and temperature patterns can push marginalized people

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